Candidate filing ends - change on the horizon
03.10.2010
In:
Education,
Public Affairs
Candidate filing for the 2010 elections to the North Carolina General Assembly ended on February 26th. With an increased number of contested races, it’s going to be a busy election cycle. The majority party next year will control legislative redistricting, and both major political parties recognize the high stakes of this election. The Democratic and Republican party organizations are expected to commit massive resources to retaining or gaining control of the Legislature.
It’s hard to imagine Democrats improving on their already impressive 30‐20 majority in the North Carolina Senate and 68‐52 majority in the House. And if they can’t go up, there’s only one direction to go. By switching just six seats, Republicans could gain control of the Senate. The voting trends of the most heavily contested seats makes a party switch in the Senate possible. The House will likely have a narrower partisan divide but a switch in control is less likely.
Filing by the Numbers
From the top of the ticket to the bottom, the number of candidates has increased compared to two years ago. A United States Senate race at the top of the ticket will likely pit incumbent Richard Burr against whichever Democrat can survive a brutal primary. There are also 66 major party candidates for 13 U.S. House seats. These Congressional races will significantly impact turnout in many legislative races.
As the party in control of the Legislature, Democrats have benefited from a significant fundraising edge in recent elections. That fundraising will be put to the test as Republicans have recruited significant numbers of candidates, including a candidate in every state Senate district. Both parties see opportunities in the open seats. There are 19 open legislative seats (eight in the Senate, 11 in the House) with no incumbent. There are also six representatives and three senators who were appointed during the current term and are running for the first time in their new districts.
The number of candidates across the state reveals the increased interest in this important legislative election. Eleven incumbent senators and 28 incumbent representatives have competition in their May primary elections. Primaries are a particular concern for incumbents because voter turnout is typically low, and anything can happen.
There are also fewer candidates running unopposed. This year, eight Republican senators, eight Democratic representatives and 22 Republican representatives will have no primary or general election competition from the other major party. The number is a significant reduction from 2008, when a whopping 19 Senators and 50 House members ran unopposed.
The Political Outlook
Looking at the politics and demographics of the state, this election year is the potential beginning of an extended period of uncertainty in the Legislature:
- 2010 Short Session – With the retirement of Senate Majority Leader Tony Rand before completion of his term, the 2010 short session will see the first significant change in the Senate’s leadership structure in nine years. While the House leadership remains intact, the practice of having all bills travel through multiple committees creates more challenges for any issue in a short session. Although there is an opportunity for several issues to be considered in 2010, budget challenges will again take center stage.
- 2011‐2012 Session – The national census takes place in 2010, and the Legislature will redraw districts in 2011 based on the census results. Both parties are desperate to control at least part of the redistricting process, which will shape legislative elections for 10 years. It’s possible that each party could control one legislative chamber, creating a major showdown on districts.
- 2013‐2014 Session – In 2013, there will be a new crop of legislators coming from newly drawn districts, creating another possible leadership shift. Following the census, the urban and suburban counties are poised to gain more legislative seats – and legislative power.
In addition, legislative economists are already bracing for a potential $500 million shortfall in the current budget. Legislators will have a couple of choices this May – raise taxes or make additional cuts. It’s hard to see many taxes going up in an election year. This year’s potentially epic budget debate will play out with several groups of legislators taking completely distinct views of the November elections:
- The Lame Duck – Several legislators have already announced their retirements following this year. Several more legislators in both parties might come to Raleigh on May 12th having just lost primary elections.
- Looking to November – As both parties have an eye on redistricting, some incumbents who have not seen November opponents in recent years will be forced to defend their seats in 2010. Before these legislators cast key votes, they will pay even greater attention to constituent groups in their own districts.
- Safe for Another Two Years – Candidates will tell you they take all challengers seriously, but there is a group of legislators who have no opposition in November, or only a token challenge in a seat that leans predominantly toward one party. These legislators might consider their party’s statewide prospects a bit more than their own electoral chances when making tough votes.
What does it mean for you?
In other words, North Carolina’s political stakes in 2010 can’t get higher for a mid‐term election. A business or organization will fall behind if it does not plan now to raise its profile over the next three years. Some groups will likely wake up after Election Day in November and realize they lack legislative supporters. Now is the time to lay the groundwork using social media, traditional media and good old fashioned one‐on‐one interaction with legislators.
With a mix of personalities, agendas and electoral prospects, navigation of the Legislature just got even tougher. And no matter which party controls the Legislature, a change is coming in the next few years. The smart businesses and groups will start preparing now.
To view the listing of candidates (organized by District) who filed for party primaries during the 2010 filing period, please click here.
