What’s Next? – 2010 Post-Election

What’s Next? – 2010 Post-Election

Capstrat Staff

11.12.2010
In: Public Affairs

On November 2, the Republicans swept to victory in the North Carolina General Assembly, reversing previous Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate. For the first time in more than a century, the Republicans control the entire Legislature.

When the General Assembly starts its session on January 26, the new majority faces an incredible list of challenges, including shrinking state revenues and the once-per-decade task of redrawing legislative and congressional districts. New legislative leaders will also be positioned to address issues that previous leadership would not even consider bringing to a hearing.

At every level, the Legislature of 2011-2012 will look completely different from previous years. Budget and policy priorities, leadership positions and even legislative procedures are all likely to change.

Budgetary changes

The main task of every session of the General Assembly is to pass a state budget for the next fiscal year, which begins July 1st. Many of the new majority party ran on promises to reduce spending and oppose tax increases. The General Assembly is facing an automatic reduction in revenue availability for two main reasons: 1) several temporary taxes are set to expire at the end of the fiscal year; and 2) a significant reduction in federal stimulus money is expected. Elimination of these two sources of revenue likely means at least a $3 billion reduction on a budget of approximately $19 billion. Without tax increases, the reduction in revenue would have to be met through budget cuts.

To prepare for the expected revenue reduction, Governor Bev Perdue has instructed state agencies to prepare for budget cuts of up to 15 percent. Over the next few weeks the Governor will finalize her budget proposal, which she will present to the General Assembly in late January or early February. In addition to recommending budget cuts and signaling her spending priorities, she is also expected to unveil a plan for the reorganization of state government which could mean fewer departments and agencies.

Education and Health and Human Services spending take up about 77 percent of the state’s general fund budget. In the current fiscal year, the state budgeted for $10.8 billion in spending for education. Of that amount, about $3 billion is for K-12 teachers. A large portion of the Health and Human Services budget is made up of mandatory spending to match federal Medicaid dollars. The largest portion of discretionary state spending falls in mental health, disabilities and substance abuse services. With the revenue shortfall looming and a state constitution requiring a balanced budget, education and health and human services would have to experience cuts.

New leadership and changing procedures

With a change in the majority party, there will be a change in all the leadership positions in the General Assembly. For 18 years, the North Carolina Senate has had the same President Pro Tem, Senator Marc Basnight (D-Dare). In January, there will be a Republican Pro Tem, likely Senator Phil Berger of Rockingham County. In the House, several Republicans are vying for the position of Speaker, and it will take a caucus vote (scheduled for November 20) to determine the winner.

In addition to key leadership posts, the new Speaker and new President Pro Tem will be responsible for naming all committees. Currently there are 44 standing committees and subcommittees in the House and 21 in the Senate. Committee chairs wield considerable power in the General Assembly. They preside over committee debate, setting the agenda and deciding which bills will and will not be heard. With so many new faces, there will be a whole new dynamic in getting bills heard and debated in committee.

In addition, the majority sets the procedural rules in the House and Senate which means they control the flow of legislation. For example, the House of Representatives in the previous session generally sent bills to at least two committees, and sometimes more, for examination prior to reaching consideration in the full House. On the other hand, the Senate often held only one committee meeting before sending a bill to the Senate floor for a vote. Neither of these procedures is set in stone, and leadership of each chamber will decide many of these questions when they present the rules for their operating procedures. Bill sponsors and supporters might be navigating completely new legislative processes with new players.

New Policy Priorities

Each political party naturally sets different legislative priorities, and many Republican legislators have seen their favored bills bottled up in committees for years without hearings. Some of those bills will likely get more attention in 2011-2012 including:

  1. Voter identification – House Speaker candidate Paul (Skip) Stam (R-Wake) has promised several legislative initiatives, including passing a requirement that all voters show valid photo identification to vote.
  2. Gay Marriage – Proposed amendments to the North Carolina Constitution to ban gay marriage never got hearings under the previous legislative leadership.
  3. Eminent Domain – In response to the U.S. Supreme Court’s Kelo decision in 2005, several states have clarified their eminent domain laws, further restricting the abilities of governments to use eminent domain for private development.
  4. Annexation – Compared to almost any other issue, annexation has brought the most passionate constituents to legislators’ offices during the past session. Municipalities in North Carolina have a wide ranging ability to annex neighboring property. With an increasing population leading to a large number of annexations, a growing number of state residents have chafed at being brought into city limits. An bill placing additional limitations on municipalities’ ability to annex passed the House in 2009, but never received a hearing in the Senate.
  5. Charter Schools – Since their introduction in North Carolina, there has been a cap on the number of charter schools. These schools are within the public school system, but they have a great deal more flexibility on how they operate and are often compared organizationally to private schools. They receive state funds based on their student populations. Eliminating the cap is one of the items on the Republican Party’s platform in North Carolina.
  6. Taxes – For at least a decade, the General Assembly has had various study committees dedicated to reforming the state’s tax code. The reasoning behind the committees always seem simple – the current tax code was written for an economy based primarily on manufacturing and we are now a service economy. But the efforts always get bogged down. With the state facing declining revenue dependent on the volatile sales tax, the revenue reform efforts might gain steam in 2011.

Since the Governor in North Carolina has veto power, there are some issues on which she and legislative leaders will need to work together more closely. However, a gubernatorial veto can be overridden with a three-fifths majority of both the House and the Senate. Senate Republicans hold more than the three-fifths majority (30), making them virtually veto-proof. House Republicans are only four votes shy of the three-fifths (72 votes) majority they would need to override a veto. Issues that are not subject to gubernatorial veto include:

  • Amendments to the North Carolina Constitution.
  • Amendments to the United States Constitution.
  • Joint Resolutions – often resolutions honoring individuals or significant historical events.
  • Legislation making appointments to various boards, commissions and regulatory bodies.
  • Redistricting legislation for the North Carolina House of Representatives, North Carolina Senate and Congress.

New Districts

While the debate on the state budget will have a wide ranging impact, the majority party will get its biggest electoral reward by controlling redistricting. Every 10 years following the census, each state draws new legislative and congressional districts. The new districts drawn in 2011 will be in effect for the 2012 presidential election year.

The party in power generally uses its majority power to draw districts as favorable for its members as possible. However, they don’t have a total free reign over redistricting decisions. A series of federal and state court rulings, and federal laws, have taken away some of their flexibility. The rulings were intended to resolve conflicting federal and state laws that are sometimes in conflict:

  • Federal law – The Voting Rights Act requires the state to avoid diluting the electoral strength of minorities and requires some “majority-minority” districts.
  • State law – The state constitution requires that counties not be split by legislative districts.

The courts have outlined a four-step process for legislators to follow to resolve the conflicts:

First, the General Assembly should draw the districts required by the Voting Rights Act. Second, it should take all the counties with just the right population to be single-member districts and make them one-county single-member districts. Third, it should take all the counties that have just the right populations for one or more districts and divide those counties into compact single-member districts. Fourth, for the remaining counties it should group them into clusters of counties and divide the clusters into compact single-member districts, crossing county lines within the cluster as little as possible. – From the North Carolina General Assembly website

Although redistricting is mainly a stand-alone, insider issue, it can hang over the heads of individual legislators as they try to have the best possible districts drawn. Past redistricting debates have impacted individual relationships at the Legislature as those leading the effort balance the needs of their majority party, loyalty to individual legislators and legal precedents that they must uphold.

What does it all mean?

Rarely does a legislative session begin promising so much change and uncertainty. A large number of new legislators and new leadership will set completely different policy priorities. Individual legislators will fight to protect their political lives during the redistricting process. And longtime legislators will find themselves in new roles, either as majority leadership or minority members. With the incredibly tight state budget, programs that have never faced major scrutiny will go under the microscope. These changes will impact the legislators themselves, and anyone with interest in any legislation.

More than ever before, businesses, groups and individuals with issues before the General Assembly must:

  1. Demonstrate support from constituents in individual legislators’ districts.
  2. Show legislators how programs save the state money.
  3. Show legislators how individual programs produce results.

Legislators will look for answers on how to solve the budget and how to build support throughout a new legislative process. Successful groups will be those that can provide the right answers.

To see a post-election list of legislators for 2010, click here: House, Senate.