History repeating: Apple will lose - again.
Let me start by saying that I love Apple products. I do. This fact makes it even harder for me to say this: Apple is going to get trounced - again.
Apple computer lost the desktop war to Microsoft. Now they are poised to lose another war, this time to Google over the future of mobile. In fact the table has already turned. Android devices are now outselling Apple devices. Android sales have actually doubled to 200,000 activations a day. To a person who respects how much Apple has driven innovation, this is just painful to watch, for the second time.
So look closely, and you see history repeating. Just replace Microsoft with Google.
The Platform
Last time: Apple was fighting with Microsoft over the desktop, the platform of the day.
This time: it's a fight with Google over mobile.
Hardware and software
Last time: Apple sold its software only on its hardware so it could control the experience. Microsoft made deals with gobs of hardware companies and sold its OS like hotcakes.
This time: Apple is selling it's popular iOS only on its iPhone devices. Google is giving away the Android OS to hardware manufacturers like HTC and Motorola. Android in on more than 60 devices, from 21 companies in 48 countries and on 59 carriers.
Control
Last time: Apple prevented software companies from having access to make significant changes to provide everyone with consistently great experiences. Microsoft let its hardware partners modify the OS to customize the experience.
This time: Apple controls its platform, coding standards and the iTunes store. The device's UI is locked down. Android is open source and is routinely customized by hardware companies and providers to help them monetize and distribute more easily.
Once again, Apple will innovate, and others will copy them. The competition will make lower quality products, open them to everyone, and outsell Apple. Eventually Apple will be marginalized and made insignificant.
The one chance they have is to continue to jointly develop industry standards, like CSS3 and HTML5. But the onus will constantly be on them to inter operate with hugely popular systems like Microsoft Exchange and Google's suite of tools
Man... I think I'll go buy an iPhone while I still can.
Comments
Hmmmm - not sure I'm buying your conclusion: Apple's irrelevance. While I agree the parallels are stunning, who's stock would you buy today? Apple or Microsoft? Who won that battle? I don't think Apple v. Google is a forgone conclusion.
Yes, Apple has challenges but Google - in my humble opinion - has some of their own. Google will get bigger and probably have more influence due to shear girth, but never discount the company that is first to the market with innovation more times than any other.
Just sayin'
- bruce
I would never suggest that Apple is irrelevant. In fact they innovate like no one else. But they innovate and then others consume the market.
Yes, they own the world right now. But if we remember, Apple was doing great in the late 80's, but then they were marginalized and nearly went out of business in the 90's because M$ dominated the market.
I think Apple will survive, but I doubt they will own this space for much longer.
All that said, I still love their products and I'll still buy an iPhone. But then, I owned Apple computers thru the 90's.
It strikes me that this boils down to closed vs. open systems. And in that battle, open wins every time.
Leave a Comment